Another Reason Not To Care

With West Virginia rapidly approaching, and forecasting a major win for the Clinton campaign, it's worth taking a look at the state a little beyond the cursory poll numbers that are flashing like a neon sign of demographic problem .


For one, the Democrats have failed pretty miserably in West Virginia despite picking the winner of its primary for the last two years. "In 2000, Al Gore won seventy-two percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state's general election to George Bush by six percent; in 2004, John Kerry won sixty-nine percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state's general election to George Bush by thirteen percent." This isn't to say that the demographics of West Virginia can't tell us something about how other states will vote, but we should be wary of making a mountain out of a molehill that we can't conquer.


This isn't to say that the Democrats should write off the state - we hold two of three congressional districts and both senate seats - but we should be aware that national Democrats haven't fared particularly well in the Mountain State in recent cycles.


Also, not to hate on West Virginia, but this excerpt from the poll is comical, if not telling: "West Virginia Democratic voters appeared to be in denial about the delegate projections. Asked who would be the next president, regardless of whom they personally supported, 31 percent said Clinton; 27 percent, Obama; 26 percent, McCain; and 11 percent were undecided." So the person predicted most likely to win the general, in the eyes of the West Virginia democratic voters, is the person least likely to make it out of the primary. So much for a better informed electorate.