Brendan Nyhan applies the classic economic coordination and collective action problems to Dem party leaders' reluctance to take sides on the current primary battle. (h/t Marc Ambinder)
This analysis is quite convincing, except that the potential benefits may be starting to outweight the potential costs for party leaders of taking action. Nancy Pelosi is making some public moves to validate Obama as the eventual nominee by taking his position on the responsibility of superdelegates, and Harry Reid is making cryptic comments about potential actions being taken to ensure that we have a nominee before the DNC in August.
With new analysis from Gallup suggesting that 28% of Clinton supporters say that they would prefer McCain to Obama, any back room deal, which does not come off as truly the wish of Hillary Clinton risks alienating a large chunk of the Democratic party base. Just like the potential damage caused by superdelgates overturning the popular will of Democratic primary voters to support Clinton over Obama (based on delegate math or on the popular vote) at the convention, this type of action has potentially dire consequences. This is particularly important to conisder in light of 2008 Congressional elections. In close races in the Northeast, where a realignment is on its way to being fully completed, such as CT-04, NY-25, NJ-03, and in heavily Hispanic districts in the West such as NM-01, AZ-01, NV-03, turning off the Democratic base and causing them either to vote for McCain or, more likely, not to vote at all, could be particularly problematic. Chris Shays might be able to do enough to capture Obama voting independents in order to secure reelection if the Democratic base does not come out to support Jim Himes.
Party leaders likely need to act in order to avert a disaster caused by a chronically competitive presidential primary, but they also need to tread lightly.
This analysis is quite convincing, except that the potential benefits may be starting to outweight the potential costs for party leaders of taking action. Nancy Pelosi is making some public moves to validate Obama as the eventual nominee by taking his position on the responsibility of superdelegates, and Harry Reid is making cryptic comments about potential actions being taken to ensure that we have a nominee before the DNC in August.
With new analysis from Gallup suggesting that 28% of Clinton supporters say that they would prefer McCain to Obama, any back room deal, which does not come off as truly the wish of Hillary Clinton risks alienating a large chunk of the Democratic party base. Just like the potential damage caused by superdelgates overturning the popular will of Democratic primary voters to support Clinton over Obama (based on delegate math or on the popular vote) at the convention, this type of action has potentially dire consequences. This is particularly important to conisder in light of 2008 Congressional elections. In close races in the Northeast, where a realignment is on its way to being fully completed, such as CT-04, NY-25, NJ-03, and in heavily Hispanic districts in the West such as NM-01, AZ-01, NV-03, turning off the Democratic base and causing them either to vote for McCain or, more likely, not to vote at all, could be particularly problematic. Chris Shays might be able to do enough to capture Obama voting independents in order to secure reelection if the Democratic base does not come out to support Jim Himes.
Party leaders likely need to act in order to avert a disaster caused by a chronically competitive presidential primary, but they also need to tread lightly.
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